The Fed’s Stagflation Problem

An old “new word” has entered the economic and market narratives in recent weeks: Stagflation. It’s an old word because the United States suffered from two bouts of “stagflation” from the middle 1970s to early 1980s. It’s a new word because there’s a new generation of market participants.

Stagflation is an economic cycle when economic growth is low (the “stag”) and inflation (the “flation”) are high. Low growth in past bouts also included high unemployment. A key factor in those stagflations was OPEC’s manipulation of oil supplies.